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car prices new and old


chillly
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We all have been seeing unprecedented car prices in the last 18 months and it makes you wonder is the bubble ever going to burst? My own opinion is i think new car prices being what they are and lets face it are not going to come back down ever due to demand and shortage. Plus major manufactures now realise its more profitable to make more for building less. Which in turn will now always make the 2nd hand market hold the extra values they have since trended of late. Interesting journey so far so whats your thoughts?  

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Ita crazy atm but not sure it will last once things settle down a bit.

I got £250 less than i paid brand new for my AMG CLA35 Shooting brake after 20 months of ownership!

That's £12.50 a month in depreciation, unheard of before.

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45 minutes ago, Microbe said:

Ita crazy atm but not sure it will last once things settle down a bit.

I got £250 less than i paid brand new for my AMG CLA35 Shooting brake after 20 months of ownership!

That's £12.50 a month in depreciation, unheard of before.

 

I had very similar with my C43. Lost £500 off the price I paid brand new 14 months earlier. I then saw it being sold by a Merc dealer for £3k more than I paid new!

 

I do think prices for used cars will stay higher like Gary has said, but not the ultimate highs we have seen. Car manufacturers are enjoying selling cars at a higher markup sure, but they will also want to bring back the quantity as well. That way they can eat their cake and have it too. Once the quantity comes back and the demand starts to drop a bit (which will probably take a couple of years), then we'll start to see depreciation like before. However, the depreciation will be from that higher starting point. The interesting thing will be how the move to electric affects ICE prices going forward towards the supposed "cut off" dates and beyond.

 

I do remember hearing Tony on the BTG podcast talk about a good indicator being the total number of cars for sale on autotrader. He said you can always tell the supply and demand balance from that number. I just can't remember what he said the normal number was before all the Covid/Ukraine shit kicked in. 

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48 minutes ago, tweaked9107 said:

 

I had very similar with my C43. Lost £500 off the price I paid brand new 14 months earlier. I then saw it being sold by a Merc dealer for £3k more than I paid new!

 

I do think prices for used cars will stay higher like Gary has said, but not the ultimate highs we have seen. Car manufacturers are enjoying selling cars at a higher markup sure, but they will also want to bring back the quantity as well. That way they can eat their cake and have it too. Once the quantity comes back and the demand starts to drop a bit (which will probably take a couple of years), then we'll start to see depreciation like before. However, the depreciation will be from that higher starting point. The interesting thing will be how the move to electric affects ICE prices going forward towards the supposed "cut off" dates and beyond.

 

I do remember hearing Tony on the BTG podcast talk about a good indicator being the total number of cars for sale on autotrader. He said you can always tell the supply and demand balance from that number. I just can't remember what he said the normal number was before all the Covid/Ukraine shit kicked in. 

interesting comments. for me the now larger gap from the Mk7 to Mk8 is so vast is why i thinks used prices will stay higher. my 7.5 for similar spec was 41k the mk8 is now 54k and climbing 

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Well on the one hand an argument that demand won't decrease despite the high inflation and bad economic situation we're experiencing - all prices have increased. Not just cars. And proposed tax cuts would increase demand. On the other hand, the macro economic headwinds we face mean likely reduced consumer spending going forward which will lower demand and prices. Risk is off. It all depends on this war. If it will end 🙏

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I watched the prices for mine rise, rise then fall back.  Still a bit up and down, and way higher than “normal” 
I was sure they’d fall.  Nope.  Got that wrong. 


I struggle with the fact that an 8R hatch and Wagon, with a few options has a full sticker price north of £50k…….but then I look at the prices of new EV’s!  So will plan my car plus £15k+ at change time. (and hide the tear).

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Second hand prices have dropped from the peak in Q1.

 

I sold my 7.5/310 full fat version to a dealer back in February for more than newer cars are priced at on Autotrader at present

 

Still high but defo dropped since the start of the year

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Yeah I think the the used car market has dropped a bit as of late …. The bubble that we all talk about hasn’t really burst though … just slowly deflating in my opinion. As already mentioned the new car prices that are 20% higher than the older model has gone along way to help this I think . I’m personally still ‘up’ on 3 of our cars and on the R about 1-2k down from what I paid in February 

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I think dealers are trying it on a bit too.

There's a R on sale near me with akra and a few other extras which was listed at £50,900 a couple of weeks ago, its not sold and is now at £48,500 ish.

My CLA is currently listed at £48,563, about £3,000 more than they paid me for it. I will keep an eye on it to see if they reduce it.

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2 hours ago, OOV said:

Well on the one hand an argument that demand won't decrease despite the high inflation and bad economic situation we're experiencing - all prices have increased. Not just cars. And proposed tax cuts would increase demand. On the other hand, the macro economic headwinds we face mean likely reduced consumer spending going forward which will lower demand and prices. Risk is off. It all depends on this war. If it will end 🙏

 

This may affect the lower end, but I suspect most people that would normally drop 40k+ on a car aren't going to be those affected badly enough by increased utility bills and food prices to stop the purchase. Although I suppose a lot do overspend their budget and PCP through the eyeballs. 

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23 minutes ago, tweaked9107 said:

 

This may affect the lower end, but I suspect most people that would normally drop 40k+ on a car aren't going to be those affected badly enough by increased utility bills and food prices to stop the purchase. Although I suppose a lot do overspend their budget and PCP through the eyeballs. 

Agree 100% on people over committing on PCPs 

 

See if loads of new range rovers etc driving round near me and peoples jobs / houses just don’t match the car

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3 hours ago, tweaked9107 said:

 

This may affect the lower end, but I suspect most people that would normally drop 40k+ on a car aren't going to be those affected badly enough by increased utility bills and food prices to stop the purchase. Although I suppose a lot do overspend their budget and PCP through the eyeballs. 

 

Yes exactly. Interest rate hike, inflation, 80% energy in October etc, it can change mindsets. People who can actually just about afford a nice car they might hold back, Think it's not a necessary need right now. They get on top of their expenses because of the times we're living in. And of course the people who can drop 40k+ will continue to do so.

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Granted it’s a micromarket and they are of course known for being highly priced, I’m looking for an RS3 currently 17-68 and the pricing is absurd, 2018 with moderate spec and mileage at nearly £45k. 

 

In addition my R is worth pretty much £3k more than what I paid for it 18 months ago which again is crazy. 
 

I thought they’d have fallen and I think maybe they will by Q3 of next year if nothing changes, which I suspect it won’t.

 

As a poster above says I think dealerships will want to move more towards quantity again. 
 

 

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We've not had a winter yet with any of the silly price caps, with the first ridiculous one landing in April this year when the heating is usually off and rarely used until the end of this month. 

 

Come Novemeber when their bills are £500-700 a month on top of their £800 a month pcp then the car market will grind to a halt. 

 

People will be terminating their agreements and handing back to the dealers. 

 

There may be a little resurgence in cheaper, older second hand cars but I think the new car market will drop off a cliff. 

 

My mate is a sales director for a big make franchise and they're already seeing a downturn and bricking it. 

 

Personally I'm hoping for a drop as car prices are ridiculous. 

 

I had a BMW 330e in Sep 17 for £34k. Same spec now to buy is £47k. That's inflation and then some. 

 

What really gets my goat though is the £40k "luxury car tax" which hasn't changed since 2016. 

 

My R was £31.5k in March 2016 (before the luxury tax bs) and that same spec R is now north of £50k. 

 

I cant even spec up an Octavia VRS without breaching the £40k RRP

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